Costoso voto de protesta en pro de la salida del Reino Unido

Costoso-voto-de-protesta-en-pro-de-la-salida-del-Reino-Unido.jpg

Los partidarios del “Brexit” que desean que el Reino Unido abandone la Unión Europea (UE) están solicitando un voto de protesta. ¿Estás harto de Bruselas?

¿Preocupado por la inmigración? Entonces vota para salir de la UE. En la vida real, el referéndum del 23 de junio representa la elección más importante que los británicos hayan enfrentado durante el período de la posguerra. El statu quo tiene que medirse en referencia a la alternativa. Elevar las barreras ¿es realmente una opción inteligente?

La mayoría de las veces este tipo de confusiones escasamente importan. La ventaja de la democracia es que los ciudadanos tienen la oportunidad de cambiar de opinión. Si un grupo de políticos reniega de sus promesas, se pueden cambiar durante las siguientes elecciones. El referéndum del “Brexit” es diferente: sus consecuencias son asimétricas. Si el Reino Unido opta por permanecer en la UE, bien pudiera reconsiderar el asunto nuevamente en, por ejemplo, una o dos décadas.

Un voto para salirse sería permanente, y determinaría el curso hacia la desintegración del Reino Unido. Es fácil darse cuenta de dónde se encuentra la mayoría de los riesgos y por qué los defensores del “Brexit” prefieren el antiintelectualismo a un debate racional acerca de cómo sería la vida después de una salida de la UE.

Una cuestión desconcertante para la gente fuera del Reino Unido que está observando lo que está sucediendo es ¿por qué ahora? Es cierto que la UE no está en su mejor forma, pero ha sorteado las múltiples tensiones de los últimos años. En realidad, la selección del momento para llevar a cabo el referéndum no tiene nada que ver con la sustancia. Es todo un asunto de política: David Cameron pensó que un referéndum mantendría unido al Partido Conservador; no fue una de las decisiones más inteligentes del primer ministro.

Las consecuencias de una votación para salirse repercutirían mucho más allá del Reino Unido, incluso si suponemos que los bancos centrales han aprendido cómo enfrentar los choques en los mercados financieros. Donald Tusk, el presidente polaco del Consejo Europeo, probablemente estaba exagerando cuando sugirió que pudiera marcar el comienzo del final de la civilización occidental. Pero sería un golpe devastador al resto de la UE y a la reputación de lo que, en términos generales, constituye el Occidente. Para el Reino Unido los costos a corto plazo serían elevados. Las consecuencias, políticas y económicas, a largo plazo serían profundas.

No hay nada complicado ni abstracto acerca de la argumentación a favor del compromiso europeo, el cual se basa en tres pilares: la prosperidad nacional, la seguridad y el apego a valores que muchos británicos reclamarían como propios: la libertad, la democracia y el Estado de derecho. Ésta es una época durante la que los intereses y los valores del Occidente están enfrentando retos provenientes de los autócratas de todo el mundo.

El ‘vergonzoso’ secreto de la membresía en la UE es que ha sido un verdadero éxito económico. El Reino Unido se incorporó en 1973 como un debilitado miembro de Europa . Durante los 43 años siguientes ha florecido. La producción nacional ha aumentado más rápidamente que la de Alemania, la de Francia y la de Italia. El producto interno bruto (PIB) ha aumentado en un promedio del 1.8 por ciento al año, frente al 1.7 por ciento en Alemania, al 1.4 por ciento en Francia y al 1.3 por ciento en Italia.

El revanchismo del presidente ruso Vladimir Putin; la proliferación nuclear; el terrorismo del Estado Islámico (EI); la migración incontrolada proveniente de las áreas del Magreb y del Sahel; las redes criminales internacionales ; y el cambio climático son todas amenazas actuales que requieren una respuesta colectiva. Al debilitar a Europa, el “Brexit” dificultaría aún más el enfrentarlas; al debilitar al Reino Unido, disminuirían su capacidad de generar las respuestas.

La “mentalidad Preilustración” de los partidarios del “Brexit” no tiene tiempo para dedicárselo a los valores. Los derechos humanos se presentan como un complot europeo.

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