El PP supera la barrera del 30 por ciento y el PSOE sigue a la baja

El-PP-supera-la-barrera-del-30-por-ciento-y-el-PSOE-sigue-a-la-baja.jpg

A una semana de las elecciones generales del 26 de junio , el escenario político parece tan embrollado como el que resultó del 20 de diciembre, si no más. Los pactos volverán a ser imprescindibles, pero para romper el bloqueo político que se vive en España desde hace seis meses algún partido tendré que cambiar su postura. Así se refleja en la última encuesta de GAD3 para ABC , en la que el PP supera la barrera del 30 por ciento en estimación de voto. Esa subida, sin embargo, no se traduce en más escaños por la participación de la coalición Unidos Podemos , que se consolida en la segunda posición ante un PSOE a la baja y un Ciudadanos estancado en votos y escaños.

El PP se mantiene en la primera posición en la última semana de la campaña electoral, con un 30,3 por ciento de estimación de voto, su porcentaje más alto en estos seis meses que han transcurrido entre unos comicios y otros. Solo en enero logró superar el 30 por ciento, por una décima.

La paradoja es que el partido de Mariano Rajoy puede tener más votos el próximo domingo, con una subida de 1,6 puntos, y sin embargo no se traduzcan en más escaños. Al contrario, puede perder algunos de los que ya tenía. La encuesta de GAD3 le asigna 121-124 diputados, frente a los 123 que logró el 20 de diciembre (con un 28,7 por ciento de votos).

Para explicar esa aparente contradicción hay que mirar a la novedad más importante que hay en estas elecciones respecto a las anteriores: la participación de la coalición Unidos Podemos , que incluye a Podemos e Izquierda Unida. Al sumar sus votos optimizan mejor el resultado en las urnas y el reparto de los «restos» de papeletas en las circunscripciones. Si el 20-D se hubieran presentado en coalición, el PP no habría alcanzado los 123 escaños, por lo que la comparación ahora no es exacta.

Unidos Podemos se consolida en la segunda posición , por delante del PSOE en votos y en escaños, con un 24,6 por ciento, 3,2 puntos más que el partido de Pedro Sánchez. Con ese resultado podría obtener entre 84 y 85 diputados , entre dos y cinco más que el PSOE. Ese sería el principal cambio en las urnas el próximo domingo, lo que realmente pueda abrir la caja de los truenos en Ferraz y producir una catarsis en sus filas que acabe facilitando la formación de un Gobierno.

El voto rentable Podemos más Izquierda Unida sumaron, por separado, el 24,33 por ciento de votos el 20-D, con 71 diputados (69 de Podemos y sus marcas territoriales y dos de IU). Ahora mejorarían tres décimas en el voto, que les serían muy rentables, tanto como esto: hasta 14 diputados más.

Entre Unidos Podemos y el PSOE tendrían el 46 por ciento de los votos y hasta 168 diputados en el Congreso, donde la mayoría absoluta se sitúa en 176. Este bloque de izquierda y populismo se hace más fuerte, ya que en diciembre sumaba 161 diputados.

Frente a esa posibilidad, el PP y Ciudadanos sumarían el 44,7 por ciento de los votos , con un máximo de 164 escaños. Se quedarían algo por debajo del bloque izquierdista-radical. En cualquiera de los dos casos no tendrían la mayoría para investir presidente del Gobierno por sí solos.

El veto de Rivera La formación de Albert Rivera obtendría un 14,4 por ciento de los votos, según la encuesta de GAD3. Son cinco décimas más que en diciembre, pero cuatro menos que en la anterior encuesta, realizada a finales de mayo. Sus escaños seguirían estando entre 38 y 40, ni uno más que los logrados en diciembre. Rivera está protagonizando estos últimos días de campaña por subrayar su veto a Mariano Rajoy como futuro presidente del Gobierno, lo que complica la posibilidad de un pacto tras las elecciones.

Con el resultado de la encuesta, que confirma las tendencias que reflejó el CIS la semana anterior, las posibilidades de elegir a un presidente del Gobierno se reducen a estas dos: Mariano Rajoy o Pablo Iglesias , descartado ya un Pedro Sánchez si se confirma que su partido deja de ser el referente de la izquierda.

En esa tesitura, Rajoy vuelve a defender la gran coalición , presidida por el PP, con una abstención del PSOE. En ese caso, contaría con sus 124 diputados, como máximo, y quizás con los 38-40 de Ciudadanos, si Rivera cambia su posición, como ya hizo en marzo cuando apoyó a Sánchez después de asegurar una y otra vez que no lo haría. Sería un Gobierno débil en una legislatura corta, y cada una de sus medidas tendría que ser pactada con el PSOE.

El sillón de Pablo Iglesias La otra opción es la encabezada por Pablo Iglesias , al frente de la segunda fuerza en las urnas. Iglesias pedirá el apoyo del PSOE, pero ya desde su posición de fuerza. El líder de Podemos no exigiría la Vicepresidencia, sino directamente el sillón de presidente en La Moncloa. Si acaba seduciendo al PSOE, sumarían 168 escaños como máximo, frente a los 164 del PP y Ciudadanos. Le bastaría la abstención de los nacionalistas e independentistas, en segunda votación, para ver cumplida su ambición de ser presidente del Gobierno. Entre los independentistas catalanes, destaca la caída de CDC, que perdería dos escaños, que irían a parar, directamente, al grupo parlamentario de Podemos.

Con Información de: Dossier 33

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