Michael Shifter: Hay que aumentar la presión sobre Venezuela

shifter

Michael Shifter es uno de los mayores expertos en América latina en Washington, DC. Presidente del think tank Interamerican Dialogue (Diálogo Interamericano) y máster en sociología de la Universidad de Harvard, su palabra es escuchada por políticos, empresarios y analistas estadounidenses que quieren entender lo que está ocurriendo en el continente.

En su conversación InfobaeTV manifestó su preocupación por la crisis política venezolana, trazó un balance final de la gestión de Barack Obama en su relación con la región y alertó sobre las consecuencias imprevisibles de una presidencia de Donald Trump.

-Cuando mira hoy hacia América latina, ¿qué cosas lo entusiasman y cuáles lo preocupan?

-Me preocupo más de lo que me entusiasmo. Estamos en un momento difícil en toda América, incluido Estados Unidos. Pero obviamente la que más me preocupa es Venezuela, que se encuentra en una situación de crisis humanitaria, muy triste, muy trágica, sin salida inminente. Es un foco de atención de mucha gente. Y es bien preocupante, porque nadie tiene claro cómo y cuándo va a terminar esa crisis. Otra situación es el triángulo norte de Centroamérica, también muy difícil, con altas tasas de homicidos y una crisis profunda migratoria. Hay una situación incierta en Brasil… Lo que da cierta esperanza es el acuerdo en Colombia para terminar el conflicto armado. Si bien uno no puede decir que va significar la paz de un día para el otro, empieza un proceso en el que es importante que termine la lucha entre el gobierno y las FARC.

-Con respecto a Venezuela, se abrió una discusión en el continente sobre si hay que sancionar ya mismo al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro o hay que mantener el diálogo para tratar de que se concrete el referéndum revocatorio reclamado por la oposición. ¿Cuál es su opinión?

-Creo que hay que mantener el diálogo pero con mayor presión, un diálogo más serio. No basta decir ?bueno, vamos a tener un diálogo?. Hasta ahora ha sido un poco ?light?, un poco blando, y tiene que aumentar la presión porque hay mucho en juego. Las sanciones sobre Venezuela creo que no logran nada. Venezuela tiene que salir de esta crisis profunda y difícilmente puedan hacerlo sin que gobierno y oposición empiecen a conversar. Y eso no va a pasar hasta que no haya mayor presión sobre ambas partes para que se sienten a la mesa.

– ¿Es optimista de que esta crisis se pueda solucionar de manera pacífica?

– No será fácil. Pero espero que sí. Obviamente, al final va a ser resuelto por los venezolanos. Pero un apoyo externo constructivo, pero también serio y sostenido, sería muy útil.

Respecto al acuerdo de paz en Colombia, ha habido críticas, como las del ex presidente Alvaro Uribe, porque significa una virtual amnistía para los crímenesde la guerrilla. ¿Usted cree es un buen o un mal acuerdo?

– No es un acuerdo ideal y no es el acuerdo que los colombianos querían. Pero tal vez es el único acuerdo posible. Políticamente no era posible un acuerdo donde todos fueran a la cárcel y las FARC paguen el costo de muchos crímenes de los que obviamente son responsables en Colombia. Pero hubisese sido difícil lograr un acuerdo así.

-Estamos cerca del fiinal del gobierno de Barack Obama. ¿Qué balance hace de su relación con América latina?

-Es un balance en general positivo. Cuba es el tema fundamental. El legado de Barack Obama va a ser el acercamiento de Estados Unidos con Cuba. Ese cambio dramático que generó aplausos y muy buena reacción en América latina fue fundamental y audaz. Más allá de eso, ha habido apoyos al proceso de paz (en Colombia) con un enviado especial, con Argentina también hay buenas señales con el cambio de Gobierno, hay elementos positivos. Creo que el estilo de Obama ha sido aceptado en América latina, el tono ha sido bueno. Pero no hay logros dramáticos más allá de Cuba.

¿Cómo se ve desde Washington la crisis en Brasil y el juicio político contra Dilma Rousseff?

-Dilma Rousseff estuvo en Washington hace un año. Fue bien recibida con una comida en el Departamento de Estado. Se esperaba un fortalecimiento de la relación bilaterial y que eso le sirviera como apoyo. Pero la crisis interna se fue profundizando y eso no fue posible. En este momento hay mucha incertidumbre en Brasil. Hay indicaciones que ha tocado fondo económicamente y el equipo económico ha tomado algunas decisiones correctas, pero también hay interrogantes en cuanto a la legitimidad del gobierno. Y no se sabe hacia dónde van las investigaciones de corrupción que tocan al gobierno de Temer y a Temer mismo. Y no se sabe si se resolverá con el final del proceso de impeachment contra Dilma Rousseff o habrá que esperar a nuevas elecciones en 2019.

Por Leonardo Mindez

 

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