Moody’s dice que el plan económico de Trump llevará a EE.UU. a otra recesión – Diario Financiero

Donald Trump

Por EFE Moody’s Analytics, subsidiaria de la agencia de calificación de riesgo Moody’s, aseguró hoy que si el virtual candidato republicano a la presidencia de EE.UU., Donald Trump, gana las elecciones de noviembre y lleva a cabo su plan económico, el país entrará en “una prolongada recesión”.

En un informe publicado este lunes y titulado “Las consecuencias macroeconómicas de las políticas económicas de Trump”, Moody’s Analytics repasó las propuestas del magnate inmobiliario en materia fiscal, financiera, migratoria y comercial y con base a ellas proyectó la posible senda de la economía estadounidense.

“En el escenario en el que todas las políticas que (Trump) defiende se convirtiesen en ley tal y como las ha propuesto, la economía sufriría una prolongada recesión y sería más pequeña al final de su mandato de 4 años que cuando él llegó a la Presidencia”, apuntó el informe.

Según las proyecciones de Moody’s, al final del mandato del republicano habría unos 3,5 millones de empleos menos en EE.UU.; la tasa de desempleo ascendería del 5 % actual al 7 %; los ingresos medios por hogar descontada la inflación se estancarían, y los mercados bursátil e inmobiliario perderían valor.

Sin embargo, la subsidiaria de la agencia de calificación también contempló otros escenarios, como por ejemplo uno en el que el Congreso (ya fuese bajo control republicano o demócrata) limitase bastante la capacidad de Trump para implementar las políticas que defiende en campaña, una posibilidad que admitió como “la más probable”.

Si el multimillonario se viese limitado en sus propuestas por el Congreso, Moody’s sostiene que la economía “no sufriría tanto”, pero aun así “menguaría con respecto a lo que podría haber sido sin un cambio en las políticas económicas”.

De acuerdo con las proyecciones, quienes saldrían más beneficiados con el programa económico de Trump serían los hogares con altos ingresos, ya que, entre otras cosas, serían a quienes más se les rebajarían los impuestos, mientras que los hogares de ingresos medios o bajos se verían afectados por la pérdida de empleos derivada del resto de sus políticas económicas.

Moody’s admitió que cuantificar los resultados sobre la economía de una hipotética presidencia de Trump resulta complicado por “la falta de especificidad de sus propuestas”, pero pese a ello se atrevió a aventurar que, en general, el peso de EE.UU. en la economía global se reduciría y que el Gobierno federal incrementaría su déficit y aumentaría la deuda.

La proyección de Moody’s va en la misma línea que la opinión del presidente y director ejecutivo de The American College of Financial Services, Bob Johnson, quien esta semana explicó a Efe que los inversores se debaten entre dos opciones que no les gustan (Hillary Clinton y Trump), aunque el “consenso” en Wall Street es que la exsecretaria de Estado es una elección “mejor y más segura”.

“Hay un viejo proverbio en los mercados financieros, ‘a los mercados no les gusta la incertidumbre’, y Trump trae consigo un nivel sin precedentes de incertidumbre, tanto a la elección como a los mercados”, explicó Johnson.

Noticias Relacionadas Trump anuncia la salida de su jefe de campaña a cinco meses de las presidenciales Donaciones a víctimas de matanza en Orlando alcanzan los US$ 7 millones Solicitudes semanales de subsidio por desempleo en EEUU suben en 13.000
Con Información de: Diario Financiero

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