Trump y México, tres preguntas a resolver

Donald-Trump-Mexico-

Las barajas están casi echadas en Estados Unidos (EU) sobre quienes serán los candidatos presidenciales. Todo apunta a que por el partido Demócrata (D) será Hillary Clinton y por el partido Republicano (R) Trump ; aunque todavía falta que cada uno de los congresos nacionales de sus respectivos partidos los confirme como tales. De ser así la economía y la relación México-EU está en peligro.

Trump, ha elegido basar su campaña en un cambio radical hacia el pasado, tomando lo que le conviene de un puritanismo fuera de época, y hacer creer al pueblo norteamericano que todos los males de su país provienen del mundo árabe y de los mexicanos; y que el mundo le ha arrebatado a EU las fuentes de trabajo.

Trump ha decidido polarizar a la población y apostar a que los votos de los extremistas del ala derecha le llevarán a la presidencia. Hasta el momento no ha cambiado su discurso en contra de musulmanes y mexicanos.

La visión de muchos analistas políticos expresa que deberá de cambiar su discurso antes de salir a las urnas o de lo contrario va a una probable derrota.

La generalidad de los hispanos, está en contra de votar por Trump, pero un porcentaje superior al 23 por ciento dice estar con él, especialmente los cubanos. Sin embargo no sólo existen renegados por falta de inteligencia – entendiéndolo como capacidad de intelecto y de entendimiento por dotación hereditaria o desarrollada-, sino también existen los grupos de presión como es un caso que ha causado controversia en Laredo, Texas , en el que un presidente de un Banco de la frontera que ha crecido del dinero y de los negocios de México y de los hispanos, brinda soporte a Trump, hasta el grado de organizar campañas de recaudación en favor de éste, fallando no sólo a las expectativas que sus cuentahabientes tienen, sino en el sentir de la generalidad de la población de donde es oriundo el Banco.

Pero lo que este individuo no se da cuenta es que de salir electo Trump, su empresa, es decir el banco, corre grave peligro de ver cristalizadas las amenazas de Trump, entre ellas las de “evitar a toda costa” que los trabajadores hispanos envíen dinero -remesas- a sus países, en este caso México.

Si suceden dos cosas: que Trump gane las elecciones, y aquí hablo de verdad, entonces él cumpliría sus promesas de campaña, y el resultado sería desastroso para ambos países (EU y México), pero la región de Laredo y el Noreste de México , serían las primeras en sufrir el impacto de lo que ha prometido Trump.

Por un lado, entre 1980 y 2000, la inmigración fue el principal motor de crecimiento de la población latina en la población inmigrante de EU, al mostrar un crecimiento en este lapso. Sin embargo desde el 2000, la principal fuente de crecimiento de la población latina ha cambiado, de inmigración a hispanos por nacimiento.

Por otro lado, Trump ha prometido terminar con el TLC , endurecer las leyes migratorias, expulsar a 11 millones de mexicanos que luchan por regularizar su status migratorio en EU, imponer tasas del 35 por ciento a los artículos que provengan de México y evitar que los trabajadores y familias de hispanos envíen dinero a sus países.

Adicionalmente a esto, levantar un muro real en la frontera y hasta ha prometido cambiar la constitución para que los hijos de hispanos no regularizados o ciudadanos americanos que hayan nacido en EU, les sea desconocida su nacionalidad.

Los hispanos son el grupo racial más fuerte y más joven de EU.

Alrededor de un tercio, o 17.9 millones. La población hispana de la nación es menor a 18 años, y aproximadamente una cuarta parte, o 14.6 millones de hispanos son milennials (edades de 18 a 33), de acuerdo con un análisis del Pew Research Center y datos de la Oficina del Censo .

En total, casi seis de cada diez hispanos son milennials o más jóvenes.

Sin embargo muchos de estos jóvenes decidieron apoyar a Bernie Sanders , por las promesas de corte socialista que “apanican” a los republicanos: Brindar educación gratuita, incluyendo la universitaria y apoyar a una reformatoria integral migratoria.

Sin embargo, Sanders ya perdió ante Hillary Clinton, así que quedan muchas preguntas en el aire pero traigo algunas hoy a la mesa: ¿Los jóvenes que seguían a Sanders votaran por Clinton y con ello asegurarán parte de la victoria demócrata? ¿Permitirá el partido republicano postular definitivamente a Trump? Y ¿De ganar Trump, cómo le afectaría a usted estimado lector?

* El autor es analista político en Texas, y experto en temas de la frontera México-EstadosUnidos.

?

Esta es una columna de opinión. Las expresiones aquí vertidas son responsabilidad únicamente de quien la firma y no necesariamente reflejan la postura editorial de El Financiero.
Con Información de: El Financiero

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